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Employment Has Returned to Pre-Crisis Levels

June 9, 2014

A little over a year ago, I wrote:
“If the trend remains steady, about another year and a half. That’s a long recovery. Note, there is exactly zero sophistication in this estimate. I literally just drew a line that looked about right and I’m assuming the recovery proceeds at the previous pace.”
6.5 year recovery in employment

Well, I am pleased to announce (or rather, Bill McBride has announced, and I am parroting) that employment is now at an all time high. It is now higher than it was in early 2008 when the recession began. Note that the employment recession lagged the financial crisis by around 4 months. Labor force participation is still mediocre, but at least with population increases the total number of employed workers has increased.

My guess was 78 months and the actual was 76 months. Not too shabby considering the unsophistication of the estimate. You gotta hand it to the Fed. They didn’t do level targeting, so the recovery was slow, but at least they have been NGDP targeting since 2008 so the recovery is consistent.

The actual employment recovery:
EmployRecAlignMay2014

Compared to Crises in the past:
finanacialcrises0514

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